The New Cold War

"I was able to get a sense of his soul, a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country."

This is a statement that George W. Bush made in 2001 after his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Slovenia. They used to say that the Republicans wouldn't allow Newt Gingrich to meet with Bill Clinton alone when Gingrich was Speaker and Clinton was President because no matter how dedicated Gingrich was to opposing the President a single hour alone with Mr. Clinton could leave Gingrich happily agreeing to whatever the President proposed. Clinton was smarter than Gingrich. When I first read the above quote the first thing that lept to mind was, Putin is smarter than Bush. Not much of a revelation, but it's something to think about as I consider the last 6 years since that meeting.

Putin is stepping down, there will be a new election in 2008, and that is the impetus of this reflection. Viktor Gerashchenko, a banker and former chairman of Yukos oil company, has become the voice of the opposition, however, that oppposition is so fractured that barring a miracle Putin's pick will likely succeed him as President. Who that heir might be is anyone's guess, remember that Yelstin picked Putin out of the blue, to the surprise of nearly everyone.

Putin becamse President of Russia on December 31, 1999, before that he was the head of the KGB-esque Federal Security Service (FSB). Putin wasn't the head of the FSB very long at all, in fact he was appointed in July of 1998 when Yeltsin fired Nikolai Kovalyov for no apparent reason. Before being named to head the FSB, Putin served a five year term in East Berlin for the KGB from 1985 to 1990. After the break-up of the Soviet Union he returned to his native St. Petersburg and worked primarily as an advisor to the mayor, Anatoly A. Sobchak. Sobchak was Putin's law school professor and leader of the early Russian democracy movement. Putin served as Deputy Mayor and First Vice Mayor and was placed in charge of international relations. As the New York Times describes, Putin "reportedly became known as the city administration's 'gray cardinal,' an indispensable adviser regarded with respect and a touch of fear (Gray Eminence Compels Respect and Even Fear). Putin was a supporter of Yeltsin and went to Moscow where he worked with Anatoly B. Chubais (one-time head of Russia's privitization program, this was the guy who make billionaires out of thugs) and headed an internal auditing department that was in charge of dealing with Russia's 89 regions. He became part of Yeltsin's inner circle which included Gen. Aleksandr I. Lebed, financier Boris A. Berezovsky, and Minister of the Interior Sergei V. Stepashin. Then in 1998 he was named to head the FSB.

Shortly after being named to head the FSB, Yeltsin supporter, oil tycoon, and head of the largest TV station, Boris A. Berezovsky claimed that the FSB had tried to assassinate him. Berezovsky was an outspoken proponent of market liberalization and supported both Yeltsin and Putin for president. Berezovsky was forced into exile because he was charged with corruption, but likely has more to do with his growing opposition to the state taking over all Russian media (Russian Billionaire's Bitter Feud With Putin A Plot Line in Poisoning). However, The Times reported that Putin secretly visited Berezovsky illegally while he was in exile and vacationing in Spain (Leader's Secret Holidays to Spain). Since then he has become a business partner of Neil Bush (George W. Bush's little brother), claimed to be organizing a revolution from exile in London ('I am Plotting a New Russian Revolution'), and has become a central character in the Ludlum-esque political scandal involving the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210 (Russian Billionaire's Bitter Feud With Putin A Plot Line in Poisoning). Berezovsky claimed that Litvinenko saved his life during an assassination attempt in the 1990s, and saw Litvinenko the day he became ill (November 1). Police reportedly found radiation in Berezovsky's office. Berezovsky claimed that Putin murdered his old friend. Putin's administration claims Berezovsky poisoned him in an attempt to smear Putin in order to engineer his "new Russian revolution". Berezovsky claims he became disillusioned by Putin's autocratic policies, and Putin's representatives claim that Berezovsky was angry that Putin refused to be his 'puppet'. Litvinenko was a former FSB operative who accused the FSB of engineering the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that killed 300 people and were blamed on Chechen radicals. These bombings led the Russians into the Second Chechen War and helped bring Putin to power (he was named head of the FSB in July of 1998, the bombings happened in August and September 1999, and Putin was named Prime Minister in August 1999 and replaced Yeltsin in December). Litvinenko also claimed that Putin ordered him to assassinate Berezovsky. The Washington Post describes the feud between Putin and Berezovsky as having grown to "shakesperean proportions" and notes that "he is the only one in London who appears to have tighter security than the royal family" (Russian Billionaire's Bitter Feud With Putin A Plot Line in Poisoning).

Did Putin orchestrate the assassination of Litvinenko? Was he killed to send a message to Berezovsky? Was Litvinenko correct in his accusation that Putin orchestrated the bombings of the two apartment buildings in Moscow to serve as a pretense for the Second Chechen War? Or, did Berezovsky orchestrate the elaborate death of Litvinenko to smear Putin as part of his "new Russian revolution"? I don't know, but what I do know is that under Putin military expenditures has tripled (Russia Plans Sharp Military Spending Hike). And, Russia has recently announced a $200 billion investment in their military over 8 years with the stated goal of exceeding the Soviet army in combat readiness (Big rise in Russian military spending raises fears of new challenge to west). According to Moscow, the jump in military spending is in response to the Bush administration's investment in deep penetration low-yield nuclear weapons, aka "bunker busters", which could target Russian missile control centers located in mountains, and their investment in US missile defense. Russian planners are also building up their offensive military capabilities with regard to space warfare. In response to America's development of the reusable Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle (HCV), Russia is now attempting to develop it's own stratospheric military arsenal. You might say, US missile defense doesn't work and the HCV isn't much more than a drawing and a dream, well, both China and Russia, like the US operate on the assumption that the possible is real and you should create deterrants and contingency plans accordingly, so as the Bush administration broke the bank funding his flights of fantasy he created an arms race the scale of which has been absent since Reagan. And, maybe that's appropriate, as the '80s become vintage and retro recalls the depths of that decade, perhaps it's fitting that our foreign policy seem similar yet slightly less-than, like a copy of a copy. Bush fancies himself a "Reagan-esque" president. Reagan was never an anyone-esque president, neither was Roosevelt or Lincoln. Bush is just a sad retro throw-back, too bad he's become the single biggest threat to our future.

Be Brave. Be Loud. Be Outspoken.