Surge...Escalation...You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

The "surge" will not work. It's truly amazing how quickly escalation has overshadowed the Iraq Study Group Report which calls for diplomatic engagement with Iran. That's not in keeping with Bush & Co.'s plans for Iran. They are going to attack Iran.

Just a few days ago the US raided an Iranian consulate in Kurdistan and arrested six Iranians (US Attack Draws Iranian Anger). Juan Cole hypothesizes that Iran may have been funneling weapons to the Kurdish military with the agreement that they share with the Badr Corps with whom they have long-standing ties--a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thing (Did the US Just Provoke Iran?).

Then there is the appointment of Vice Admiral John Michael "Mike" McConnell. McConnell replaces Negroponte because of what appears to be a two-year fight between the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Vice-President over a forth coming National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. McConnell has been said to have a "Rummyesque" relationship with the Vice President and will probably go along with whatever the Veep says (Bush's New Intel Chief Could Overhype Danger of Iran).

In 2005 an incomplete National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was leaked and it stated that Iran was at least 10 years away from getting a nuclear weapon (Iran is Judged 10 Years from Nuclear Bomb). This was in direct contradiction to White House assertions on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. Negroponte defended the published findings, however, the Department of Defense--on orders from the Vice President's office--created an Iranian Directorate, an action which reminded many of the "Office of Special Plans" which manipulated intelligence and strong-armed justabout everyone into a war with Iraq (Pentagon Confirms Iranian Directorate as Officials Raise New Concerns About War).

Then there is the appointment of Admiral William Fallon to head up the US Central Command, which means he is the new number one in Iraq and Afghanistan. Fallon has little experience with ground wars, and instead is an expert in naval aviation (Official Bio of Admiral William Fallon).

Oh, and he sent an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf and deployed Patriot antimissile batteries as well.

And, he said this during his surge speech, "We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We'll interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq."

I smell a Spanish American War/US Mexican War/Vietnam War style fake-attack-creates-real-war-justification situation beginning to materialize. If not that, perhaps Cambodia style bombing runs into Iran to destroy "support networks." Israel recently warned aloud that it will attack Iran if it does not abandon its nuclear weapons program (Focus: Mission Iran).

I know that you might be saying, ok, but the public would never go along with another war. Maybe. You might also be saying, a war with Iran will take a lot more than some Patriot missiles, an aircraft carrier, and an Israeli bombing run. Maybe. But think how the public debate has shifted so completely from the Iraq Study Group's recommendation of engagement to one of how and when Iran will be attacked. The Washington Posts' Blog "The Note" wondered aloud if President Bush had issued an executive order to attack Iran (Did the President Declare "Secret War" Against Syria and Iran?).

The public doesn't need to go along with another war for one to begin. Just think of all that "who cares that the war was wrong, we're there now, so we gotta do it right" kind of rhetoric, if war begins, the fight is on whether we want it or not. But, your points are well taken, sabre rattling to change the subject might be all we are seeing, but sabre rattling is not innocent it does more to destroy any chance of victory in Iraq and to harden the us vs. them mentality of what the President calls an increasingly inappropriately titled "War on Terror."